The Thursday of the Cheltenham Festival sees a shorter card than usual as the Charity Race closes the day off and that isn’t obviously a race to bet in. As always, it’s a fine card today and I’m much looking forward to the World Hurdle. As you may have seen in my previous post (here), I’m of the belief that Big Bucks is very vulnerable, so it will be interesting to see how right I am on that front. My thoughts on that big race specifically are below. Best of luck to whatever you’re backing. Look out for any further race previews.
15:20 Cheltenham – Ladbrokes World Hurdle
At Fishers Cross (Rebecca Curtis) Form: 11-4U2
Dominant in the Novices’ division last season, culminating in winning the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in pretty facile fashion. That race hasn’t worked out particularly well but there’s no real doubt that he’s top class. We haven’t seen the best of him this season, as after making a complete mess of the second-last at Newbury on seasonal reappearance, he hasn’t jumped with much fluency and enthusiasm. That improved however in the Cleeve Hurdle when just in-front of Big Bucks, showing much more passion for the game and jumping a whole lot better. He needs to improve again, but he’s hardly been seen to best effect this season and could well come on a bundle for that outing. Likely to be on concert pitch for today’s race and with Rebecca Curtis going much better now (winner on Wednesday), he’ll go very well. The ground is a slight concern, but he ran perfectly well at Aintree last season and the better ground ought not to be an issue for him.
Big Buck’s (Paul Nicholls) Form: 11/1-3
Champion of this race on four occasion and likely to be remembered as one of the greats, he returned after a long absence with a very respectable effort in the Cleeve Hurdle when possibly given too positive a ride, especially after a long time away from the track. It’s a fair assumption that he’ll “come on for the outing” and is drifting now to an attractive price, which can often happen with such horses at Cheltenham. The nagging feeling is that he is now 11 years old and it’s unlikely that he’ll be the same horse as he was a couple of years ago. With some strong looking rivals in the field this time, it’ll take a heroic effort for him to win here.
Celestial Halo (Paul Nicholls) Form: 6-1613
Winner of the aforementioned Newbury race which featured At Fishers Cross, but followed that up with a rather tame effort at Haydock. His yard put up some excuses and it didn’t really look like his true form anyway, so he can obviously be given the benefit of the doubt. He’s no doubt talented but even on his best form, you would really be hard pushed to see him winning unless all the big names fail to fire, which is unlikely considering there’s quite a few that could fit into that bracket this year. Place chance if nothing more.
Mala Beach (Gordon Elliot) Form: 21-231
Soft ground Irish staying hurdler who won a Grade 2 at Gowran Park back in January. The form of that was tainted though as Zaidpour failed to run to any sort of form and the runner-up was rated 134. Mala Beach was well behind Zaidpour the time beforehand and it’s difficult to see him truly being up to a standard of a Grade 1 contest, not least this one. An angle could have been made if the ground had been very testing, but that obviously isn’t the case and doesn’t look one to be supporting.
Medinas (Alan King) Form: 11P-22
Winner of the Coral Cup last year and showed he could handle graded races when a length second to Tidal Bay back in November. Medinas was well-behind Celestial Halo next time out at Newbury and hasn’t been seen since. That might be no bad thing considering the problems the Alan King stable had been having this winter, which now seem to be behind them on the evidence of this week. On that basis, he could be an interesting outsider but the main doubt is the trip. Although he proved he can stay three miles at Wetherby, a strongly run race at Cheltenham is a different ball-game altogether. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there with a big chance with half a mile to run before the stronger finishers get the better of him
More Of That (Jonjo O’Neill) Form: 1-111
The unexposed JP McManus runner wasn’t a definite runner in the race and was overlooked by AP McCoy in favour of At Fishers Cross but this one comes into the race with a emerging reputation and looks extremely likely to make his mark in the National Hunt sphere in time. Whether that time will be today is debatable, given he’s only had four starts over timber and hasn’t been tested over the trip. I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned out to be one of the best of these, but I really think he’ll need more experience to take this sort of race. It’ll be a really tough race and you just have to hope that it doesn’t leave it’s mark. Although, I don’t think this sort of trip will be any real problem, so entitled to be thereabouts.
Reve De Sivola (Nick Williams) Form: 01314
An easy winner of the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on awful ground in December, he’s a confirmed mud-lark who is best on testing surfaces. He’s no slouch though on better ground, shown by his 4th place finish in this race last year. On that basis, the 40/1 on offer at the time of writing looks awfully big. However, he didn’t run anything like he should have in the Cleeve Hurdle and was bitterly disappointing as he looked the obvious type to cash in if Big Bucks wasn’t at his best. He’ll have to bounce back from that, on far from ideal ground and against some serious competition, so he doesn’t have particularly much to recommend for today.
Rule The World (Mouse Morris) Form: P-1421
Obviously the best of the Irish challenge and was second at the Festival last year in the Neptune, when staying on behind The New One. Had suffered a Pelvic injury and although he took a couple of runs to get it together, was impressive over 2m4f at Naas on testing ground. He’s proved that he stays this trip in the past and we still likely haven’t seen the best of him. Definitely deserves to take his chance here given he could well be back to his best and I’d like to think that he could be in with a serious place chance.
Salubrious (Paul Nicholls) Form: 15-222
Goes well here, having finished 2nd on his last two outings at the track (over 2m5f and over 3m). He was last seen at Ascot behind Reve De Sivola when beaten ten lengths, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Salubrious was travelling well and was about to unleash his challenge when slithering on landing, effectively ended his chance. I really don’t think he would have won but the end result would likely have been much closer. Course form counts for a lot around here and he acts perfectly well on nice ground, so he has plenty in his favour but it’s hard to see him winning. Another in which an argument can be made for place prospects.
Zarkandar (Paul Nicholls) Form: 1-2222
Twice this season behind Annie Power over trips around two and a half miles and the stamina question that will be applied to Annie Power can be equally applied to Zarkandar. He’s a grand servant to connections in graded races and showed that emphatically when narrowly going down to Melodic Rendezvous over two miles at Wincanton last time. He’s the scalp of The New One last season too and there’s no doubting that he’s classy, albeit never looking flash. His galloping style may well suit three miles, but it’s hard to see him making an impact at Grade 1 level over this trip, given he’s never really looked up to that standard and has hardly indicated that he’s screaming out for the extra distance.
Annie Power (Willie Mullins) Form: 11-111
10/10 on all starts but she hasn’t gone further than 2m5f and obviously the key question is stamina. She does however have exceptional credentials given how impressive she’s always looked. On her running style she looks like she could keep on galloping all day and does things so effortlessly. It’s arguable that she would have troubled the principles in the Champion Hurdle had she gone there and although you’d expect a strongly run three miles will mean the fuel gauge is close to empty, she’ll be more than capable of capitalising on a pace collapse up-front and the ground been how it is should give her plenty of opportunity to stay. The one to beat and probably one of the most exciting mares in recent season, especially as she’s taking on the boys.
Quevega (Willie Mullins) Form: 1/11-1
Non-Runner
Verdict:
- Annie Power
- At Fishers Cross
- Rule The World
A brilliant renewal to a race that has been lacking in competitiveness for the past few season, with rivals possibly been scared off by Big Bucks. That runner is highly respected given his record in the race but at age 11, he’s unlikely to be as good as he once was, and looks vulnerable to an emerging class of staying hurdlers. Annie Power is the preferred selection, albeit possibly not one to back. Stamina questions aside, she’s one of the most exciting prospects to be seen at Cheltenham this week and could well be a cut above many of these. We haven’t seen the best of these and she should be more than capable of handling this big race in her stride. At Fishers Cross looks the best alternative and a sound each-way bet, given we’ve not seen the best of him this season and his run in the Cleeve Hurdle was much more like it. Given Rebecca Curtis’ is now in better form, it would be no surprise to see him improve on his official OR of 157. Rule The World looks an exciting prospect from Ireland with proven Cheltenham form from last season, looks likely to go really well.
Longshot Betting 