A losing day to start off with on Saturday, albeit arguably an unlucky one. Festive Affair travelled well but found nothing and my patience has pretty much run out. The same comments could well apply to Maestro Royal, who was quite weak in the market but improved significantly on his last time out. However, he found one too good from the Harry Fry stable, who hadn’t won in a considerable amount of time and coming off a break, so, I can’t really feel too sorry for myself. Castle Cheetah also improved significantly but ran into one yet again, this time the unreliable Cloudy Bob. Castle Cheetah put in some enormous jumps and would have given a fright or two to backers, but ran a career best and was unlucky to come up against one back in form.
-4pts for the day.
Onto Monday, just the one selection.
16:50 Southwell – Elkstone: 1pt @ 15/2 Totesport, William Hill
Elkstone has been quite well-supported this morning but I do think there’s still some mileage in the price and can go well now facing good ground with a sharp track. The Alan King trained runner has shown glimmers of ability in Novice Hurdles and improved again for his second run in Handicaps last time out at Doncaster. This is a competitive heat but Elkstone looks potentially a bit better than this mark when conditions are right and I’m hoping that today will be the day.
Lightly raced with only seven starts to date – the main concern is that Elkstone is a weak finisher. He generally travels well, and doesn’t find a great deal. That was shown to great effect last time when coming up to the final hurdle very strongly over this distance, but on soft ground at Doncaster, before then stopping quickly. This was after showing similar on seasonal reappearance (albeit probably needing the run) when beating 21 lengths in a competitive Taunton heat, and this tag of a weak finisher might well stick.
As mentioned earlier, runs earlier in Elkstone’s career suggests a mark of 105 should be one he can turn out to be better than. He ran well for a long way in a Cheltenham Listed Race in Bumpers, and caught the eye at Doncaster in a Novice Hurdle. Both of those efforts were on better ground, which brings hope that today’s ground conditions are his ideal. The other fact is that, Southwell is one of the sharper tracks he would encounter and if you’re a weak finisher, it is probably the track to run at. Denis O’Regan retains the ride and for a strong travelling, potentially weak finisher, is the jockey you’ll want on board. I’m not convinced by the horses at the front of the market and the betting patterns this morning have been all over the place (Mister Dick has gone from 11/2 to 11/1) and the Noel Williams handicap debutante has drifted similarly. I’m taking a chance here as I think there’s obvious reservations about Elkstone’s resilience in a battle but on a sharp track, soft ground and a possible good pace to track, I’ll take my chances. There’s a good chance that everything will pan out perfectly. Whether he’s good enough, we’ll wait and see.
Summary
16:50 Southwell – Elkstone: 1pt @ 15/2 Totesport, William Hill
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Longshot Betting 