Saturday was the last day of posting (Bank Holiday racing isn’t my sort of thing) and it was a losing day – with one selection in Hollow Blue Sky being well-backed from the advised 16/1 into an SP of 9/1. However, he never travelled with much fluency, and although jumping okay, didn’t stay this tough test due to the wind anyway. He’s not one I’ll be following too closely. -1pt for the day.
Onto Tuesday, where I’ve a couple from Wolverhampton. One solid and will almost certainly run its race, the other more risky.
15:15 Wolverhampton – Extreme Supreme: 1pt @ 6/1 BetVictor, Paddy Power
Extreme Supreme disappointed two weeks ago when sent off favourite at Southwell, but was in good form prior to that and has come down slightly in the weights. He’s not badly handicapped and the main reason why I like his chances today is that the race will be set up perfectly, is drawn well and is too big a price. Recent form figures of 333 suggest he’s about handicapped right, but he ran a cracker when last running here back in February, beaten less than a length and he was caught wider than ideal that day, too.
A strong pace today is likely given Quantum Dot, Blue Bounty and Harpers Ruby like to get on with it, a strong pace that will play to Extreme Supreme’s strengths. Although last time was a bit disappointing, I don’t think he’s that out of form, this isn’t the strongest of races and it should be run to suit, from a good draw. I’m hopeful of a solid run here and he should be a couple of points shorter, which is probably why I’d take 6/1 or 11/2 about this one.
17:00 Wolverhampton – Burneston: 1pt @ 12/1 Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill
Burneston is a complete flier here as he hasn’t been seen for 238 days, has been gelded and was beaten miles on handicap debut, which was followed up by a weak effort in a Ripon maiden. Upped in trip and on Tapeta debut, I’m not making a good case here but I’ve hope that we’ll see better of Burneston this year and he might be best caught fresh. In a weak race, I’ll take a chance at double figure odds.
The selection went into many notebooks on seasonal reappearance at Pontefract last year, where he looked to have a decent future at this sort of level, looking to have every chance before fading 1f out. There was some fair horses in that race that day, with the lowest rated out of the five who finished within 8 lengths of the winner, now rated in the high 70’s and the runner-up getting some black type at the end of the season. Burneston never built on that run though unlike the others in that race, with defeats of 16, 76 and almost 18 lengths subsequently. I can’t really offer much in the way of excuses for those, either.
Now gelded and another winter on his back, that could improve things and Burneston shaped in the aforementioned Pontefract run as if staying trips could suit. He has the pedigree, being a half-sibling to a 2m winner on the all-weather and given that connections have found a weak enough race to start off with, it may suggest that he’s ready to go off a break. It might also be a pointer that the selection’s best run came on seasonal reappearance and although he might be a tough one to train, I’ve hope that we’ll see better of him this season. Not much pace on here really either,so I don’t think it will be an extreme test at the trip and I think he could prove to be well-handicapped off a mark of 65 this season. It might be folly to have so much faith in one start, but he’s so well-handicapped on the basis of that run, alongside the fact he did look physically that he’ll improve as he gets older. At these prices, I’ll take a chance.
Summary
15:15 Wolverhampton – Extreme Supreme: 1pt @ 6/1 BetVictor, Paddy Power
17:00 Wolverhampton – Burneston: 1pt @ 12/1 Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill
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Longshot Betting 