Friday started as Thursday had ended, with another 2nd. Titus Bolt did everything I’d expected to and was given a fine ride by Henry Brooke. He was allowed an easy lead and he got first run on them turning for home. It took a really decent effort by the winner Clever Cookie to reel him in after the last. The winner will turn out to be a real decent “National Hunt” sort of horse, eventually over fences and I wouldn’t be surprised if someone bought him and took him to a bigger stable at some point. Titus Bolt didn’t deserve to be mugged in the last 50 yards, anyway.
Traditionally Saturday’s are tough and this is no different. I’d really just like to get at least one winner, which will more than certainly pay for the day. Good luck to all having a bet. Apologies also for the overnight posting (1:30am, I’m not sure if I’ll be able to post in the morning)
14:25 Ascot: Imperial Leader: 2pts @ 12/1 William Hill (Best Odds Guaranteed)
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ yard form is a little bit of a concern but he’s had a winner or two and some run well in the last few days, which allays that concern somewhat, but if Imperial Leader can get back to something like his Novice form then he’ll almost certainly win a race off a mark of 128 and I think having had a run to blow the cobwebs away this season (albet 49 days ago) will certainly have led to some improvement, with conditions to suit and this probably being over his likely best trip, he’s certainly worth siding with at double figure odds. He’s lightly-raced having only had seven starts to date, his sole victory coming in a fairly moderate novice event at Southwell over 2m5f. By some way though, his next two starts outside of Handicap Company were his strongest and showed him to be a really useful sort, especially on bad ground. They were a staying on 4th behind Melodic Rendezvous, a race where I don’t think he was given a really tough time, but the form has worked out particularly well with Royal Boy winning last weekend. It at least showed to me that he should be making waves in handicaps off a mark of around the 130’s. A 3rd behind Chilberta King followed over this trip at Newbury. That effort wasn’t quite as good but he yet again showed his liking for heavy ground, an attribute that will count for a lot.
His two efforts in handicaps have led to him being well-beaten. I really don’t have an excuse for his effort at Sandown on handicap debut; he just never really travelled. On seasonal reappearance however, connections must have expected better. He was backed late-on from 14/1 into 8/1 but really shaped as if he needed the run. To make matters worse, he made a bad mistake and wasn’t persevered with thereafter. I would suggest that he will come on for that significantly.
Today’s test isn’t easy but he has plenty in his favour. He’s over his ideal trip, on ground he likes against rivals where plenty won’t appreciate this sort of test. The handicapper has relented and he’s now 6lb lower than his initial mark. On his form in early 2013 that makes him extremely dangerous off this sort of rating and he’s definitely worth a bet. If he doesn’t win today, they’ll be other times for this well-handicapped beast but I can’t get away from him on ground this bad.
15:00 Ascot: Bury Parade; 2pts @ 8/1 William Hill (Best Odds Guaranteed)
A bet that could make me look very silly come 15:01 but I do think that if he jumps off, he’ll win and given that he’s around 7-8/1, instead of being the 3/1 he would be if he’d come straight from his win at Kempton when beating Hadrian’s Approach, then he’s worth a bet here given that you’d hope connections will be smarter to his antics at the start. Previously he’d never shown anything untoward at the start and had looked like a sort that really enjoys racing. This was personified by his effort at Kempton when beating Hadrian’s Approach. He happily jumped off, went to the front, jumped spectacularly and fought off the runner-up in game fashion. It was a serious piece of form in my view; he proved he can stay and proved he can battle when needed to. It also hinted that he’d be absolutely thrown in off this sort of mark, as that sort of run merited a mark a fair bit higher than what he’s currently been pitched at.
Some of the main questions apart from his attitude are about the ground, but I think his run at Wincanton last season when getting narrowly touched off showed he can handle horrible ground well enough to run a big race. Due to the testing surface it’s not actually as tough as race as it has been in previous years and it’s certainly a lot easier than when Tatenen last won the contest back in 2012, which makes that one an obvious danger. That being said, I’m really keen on Bury Parade if he actually starts the race. Whether he will or not is anyone’s guess, but if he starts, he’s got one hell of a chance. I’d have him priced up at around the 3/1 mark if he’d not blotted his copybook last time, so rates as a confident bet, with a huge element of caution at the start at the very least.
15:15 Haydock: Merry King; 2pts @ 5/1 BetVictor, William Hill (Best Odds Guaranteed)
The main question in this race is whether you go for the performers who have “done it” or those who “could do it”. I’m going with one that falls into the former category in Merry King, who although he hasn’t won the big race yet that I’d have expected him to, I’d certainly suggest that he’s the one to beat and should be favourite, especially as the handicapper has been so lenient after his extremely creditable run in the Welsh National. The Jonjo O’Neill trained runner has performed really well this season, with the aforementioned run at Chepstow backing up the fact that he’s perfectly at home in this tough staying handicaps. I just feel that he was given a little bit too much to do to get himself into contention and had to use up a lot of energy to do so. The track suits those racing prominently anyway and although the winner came from a similar position, he did it sooner and that may have made the difference. He also didn’t see out the trip as well as he needed but it was still a fine effort, which backed up the eye-catching run he did in the Hennessey, when well-beaten but really catching the eye in how he travelled on ground that would have been too quick anyway.
The first time visor could be seen as a concern and my first feeling was that it is. However, thinking back to viewing the Welsh National, he did seem to hit a bit of a flat-spot during the middle part of the race. He’s done it before too when not sat towards the front and the headgear should help him travel better. He already travels well for the most part, but the visor could improve things even further. He handles the heavy ground, having gone close on similar when narrowly touched off by Cannington Brook last season, and he has so much in favour that I feel he should be favourite. Katenko is the real fly in the ointment, but I wouldn’t want to be taking those prices on a horse who still needs to prove that he’s as good as he was before having Colic in the early part of 2013. It’s not just a two horse race, but the others look to have a bit to find.
Longshot Betting 